NOAA Adds “Conditional Intensity” to Convective Outlooks to Flag Potential for More Violent Severe Storms

A long-used forecast tool gets a new layer of severity detail

For decades, Convective Outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have served as an early signal that severe thunderstorms are possible. These outlooks are widely used because they can provide days of lead time—time that emergency managers and other decision makers often need to prepare for hazards such as damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

Historically, the outlooks have focused on communicating the likelihood of severe weather occurring in a given area. What they have not been able to do—at least not in a standardized, official way—is differentiate between days when severe storms are possible and days when the setup suggests the storms that do develop could be especially violent or extreme.

That is changing with the introduction of a new hazard severity component called Conditional Intensity. Announced as an addition in February 2026, Conditional Intensity is designed to help SPC forecasters highlight areas where storms may not just be severe, but more likely to be more intense—including the potential for violent tornadoes and other high-end impacts.

Why “Conditional Intensity” matters for public safety decisions

High-end severe weather can have outsized consequences. According to Evan Bentley, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, intense and violent tornadoes account for the greatest loss of life and property among severe weather hazards. The new approach is intended to make it easier to flag those higher-end scenarios in a way that can be acted upon.

“High-end severe weather like intense and violent tornadoes cause by far the greatest loss of life and property, and this improvement allows us to highlight days when these specific threats are more likely,” Bentley said. “Now, even when the probability of a severe hazard is low but the intensity is high, we can convey that threat.”

In practice, that distinction can be critical. Many severe-weather days involve scattered storms that generate numerous reports, while other days may feature only a few storms—yet those few storms could be capable of extreme damage. A forecast tool that can help separate those scenarios supports more targeted preparation and communication.

How Convective Outlooks have traditionally quantified severe weather risk

Convective Outlooks have long helped forecasters quantify the threat for severe weather—essentially, the expected number of severe weather instances in a given area. This includes hazards such as tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind.

That probability-based approach is valuable for understanding coverage: how widespread severe weather might be, and how likely it is that an area will see one or more severe events. But probability alone does not always capture the full picture of potential impacts.

Conditional Intensity adds a second dimension: it is meant to indicate where the storms that do occur are more likely to be more extreme. In other words, it complements the existing probability information by focusing on the potential severity of the hazard, not only the chance of occurrence.

Coverage vs. intensity: two different kinds of risk information

One of the clearest ways to understand Conditional Intensity is to compare two different severe-weather setups that can look similar on the surface but carry different implications for impacts and response.

SPC describes an example involving wind events. A situation that is expected to generate many reports—but only a small number of significant severe reports—could be associated with high coverage probabilities but a lower conditional intensity forecast. That would suggest severe weather is likely to be widespread, but the most destructive outcomes are less likely.

Conversely, another setup might be expected to produce only one or two high-end storms. In that case, the outlook might reflect low coverage probabilities but a higher conditional intensity forecast. The message would be that storms may be fewer in number, but if they form, they could bring more extreme impacts.

This distinction is not just academic. It affects how resources are positioned and how communities are prepared. Differentiating between “more” and “less” destructive setups can help decision makers weigh how to allocate staffing, equipment, and messaging—especially when the most intense outcomes are possible even if the overall storm coverage is expected to be limited.

What Conditional Intensity is designed to highlight

Conditional Intensity is described as hazard severity information that allows forecasters to highlight areas at risk for more intense, violent storms. It adds another layer to Convective Outlooks by focusing attention on the potential for extreme events, such as violent tornadoes.

In the development work described by SPC, conditional intensity forecasts were issued for several hazard types:

• Tornadoes
• Destructive winds
• Large hail

The intent is to provide clearer guidance about where significant severe weather is unlikely, possible, or expected—information that can be especially valuable when the most damaging outcomes are not necessarily tied to the highest-coverage scenarios.

Development began in a test environment, then moved into an extended internal experiment

The level of detail now being added to Convective Outlooks did not appear overnight. SPC notes that this approach was first explored during the 2019 Spring Experiment in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma.

During that experiment, the Severe Hazards Desk issued conditional intensity forecasts for the hazards of tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail. The areas in those forecasts corresponded to whether significant severe weather was unlikely, possible, or expected. Participants in the Spring Experiment laid the groundwork for what would become the Conditional Intensity concept, with a focus on highlighting areas of greatest concern for violent weather and higher potential societal impacts.

After the initial exploration, SPC forecasters continued developing the idea in an experimental mode. Since late 2021, forecasters have been producing these forecasts experimentally, using multiple severe weather events as opportunities to improve the intensity forecasts.

SPC reports that after more than four years of internal experimentation, forecasters have demonstrated skill in their ability to discriminate between the conditional intensities of different severe weather hazards. Based on that experience, the agency says it is ready to share the information officially through the Convective Outlook.

When the update is expected to appear in official outlooks

The Conditional Intensity addition is scheduled to appear in the Day 1 Convective Outlook on March 3, 2026. SPC also notes a practical safeguard: if a substantial severe weather threat exists on March 3, implementation will be shifted to another day during that same week.

This scheduling detail reflects the operational reality of rolling out changes to a widely used product. Day 1 outlooks are closely watched during active weather, and the agency’s plan accounts for the possibility that a major event could coincide with the planned implementation date.

What this could change for emergency managers and other decision makers

Convective Outlooks are used by a broad range of audiences, but emergency managers and other decision makers are specifically highlighted as long-time users who rely on the outlooks for lead time. Conditional Intensity is positioned as a way to improve that planning lead time by sharpening the message about potential impacts.

In severe weather operations, decisions often hinge on more than whether storms are expected. Leaders may need to know whether the environment supports storms that could be unusually destructive, even if the number of storms is expected to be small. Conditional Intensity is meant to support that kind of decision-making by allowing forecasters to communicate a high-intensity threat even when the probability of occurrence is relatively low.

SPC emphasizes that this is vital guidance for positioning resources and preparing citizens, because it enables a clearer differentiation between more and less destructive severe weather setups. In effect, it adds nuance to the forecast conversation: not only “how likely” severe weather is, but also “how intense” the severe weather could be if it occurs.

Understanding the communication goal: clearer signals about high-end outcomes

Severe weather communication often balances two competing needs: avoiding overstatement while still ensuring that rare but high-impact scenarios are not overlooked. Conditional Intensity is presented as a tool to better convey those high-end scenarios.

As Bentley noted, the change is intended to help forecasters communicate situations where the probability may be low but the intensity could be high. That is a challenging message to deliver with traditional probability-only framing, because low probability can be interpreted as low concern—when in some cases it may simply reflect limited storm coverage rather than limited potential impact.

By adding Conditional Intensity, SPC aims to provide a more complete picture of risk: one that includes both the expected coverage of severe weather and the potential for extreme outcomes within that coverage.

Key takeaways

• SPC Convective Outlooks provide early notice that severe storms with damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes are possible, offering critical lead time for preparation.
• A new hazard severity component, Conditional Intensity, is being added to help highlight areas where storms may be more intense or violent, including violent tornado potential.
• The update is designed to communicate high-intensity threats even when overall probabilities are low, helping distinguish limited-coverage but high-impact scenarios from more widespread but less intense events.
• The concept was explored in the 2019 Spring Experiment and refined through experimental forecasting since late 2021.
• Conditional Intensity is scheduled to appear in the Day 1 Convective Outlook on March 3, 2026, with flexibility to shift implementation within that week if a substantial severe threat is occurring.

For forecast users who have long depended on Convective Outlooks to plan ahead, Conditional Intensity represents a notable step toward more detailed, impact-aware guidance—especially on days when the most dangerous storms may be few, but the consequences could be severe.