Forecast: El Niño Likely to Return This Summer, Raising the Odds of Higher Global Temperatures
An El Niño signal is building, forecasters say
A potentially strong El Niño weather pattern is expected to emerge this summer and persist through the rest of the year, according to the latest official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Forecasters estimate there is a 62% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August, a window that would place the onset squarely in the Northern Hemisphere summer and set the stage for wide-ranging impacts that can extend well beyond a single season.
El Niño is a recurring, naturally occurring fluctuation in the climate system. It is closely tied to the behavior of trade winds and the distribution of heat in the Pacific Ocean. When trade winds weaken, vast volumes of warm ocean water can move from the Eastern Pacific toward the Americas. That shift does not simply change sea-surface temperatures; it can influence atmospheric circulation patterns and, in turn, shape weather outcomes across many regions.
Scientists emphasize that the current signal is still developing. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, notes that while the evidence is early, the event could become very significant in 2026 and potentially linger into 2027. That longer time horizon matters because El Niño’s influence can be felt not only during its emergence but also as its effects ripple through the global climate system.
Why El Niño tends to push global temperatures higher
One of the most closely watched consequences of El Niño is its tendency to raise average global temperatures. The hottest years on record generally occur in years when El Niño is active. The reason is rooted in how the ocean and atmosphere exchange heat: El Niño is associated with an Eastern Pacific that is hotter than usual, and that warmth can contribute to a higher global average.
Swain describes El Niño’s role in the broader Earth system as a mechanism that helps release heat from deeper ocean layers that has been temporarily stored there. In his explanation, El Niño can allow that “subducted” heat to be brought back toward the surface, where it can more readily influence the atmosphere. In practical terms, this can translate into a global temperature boost on top of whatever baseline warming is already in place.
That dynamic has played out recently. A long, strong El Niño pattern helped shatter global temperature records in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, the planet set a new record for the hottest year ever recorded, only to have that record surpassed by temperatures in 2024. Those back-to-back milestones underscore why the prospect of another strong El Niño draws close attention from climate scientists and weather forecasters alike.
How the timing could shape record-setting warmth
If a strong El Niño develops, its influence on global temperatures may not be limited to the year it forms. Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at technology company Stripe, says that if a strong El Niño does develop, it would boost temperatures in 2026 somewhat, but could have a particularly large effect in 2027. In that scenario, 2027 could be put on track to be the warmest year on record after 2024.
This kind of lagged effect is important for understanding why El Niño is often discussed in the context of multi-year temperature patterns rather than as a single-season phenomenon. When ocean heat is redistributed and released, the atmosphere’s response can persist, influencing global averages in ways that may become most apparent over time.
El Niño is not the main driver of long-term warming
While El Niño can amplify global heat, scientists stress that it is only one factor in record-breaking temperatures. El Niño is a natural cycle, and its warming and cooling phases have occurred for a long time. However, the main reason the planet is warming is human-caused global warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels.
The distinction matters for interpreting temperature records. Even without El Niño, last year ranked among the top three hottest years on record. That detail highlights how elevated the baseline has become: natural variability can still swing temperatures up or down, but it does so on top of a long-term warming trend that is primarily driven by human activity.
Regional impacts: rainfall, drought, wildfire, and storms
Beyond global averages, El Niño’s most consequential effects are often regional. The pattern can shift where storms track, how much rain falls, and how temperatures behave across different parts of the world. These regional outcomes can influence drought conditions, wildfire risk, and the likelihood of certain types of extreme weather.
Swain argues that the regional patterns may be El Niño’s most dangerous effects. In his view, El Niño can mean more heat waves and tangibly warmer temperatures, but the more important issue is what it means for the broader set of hazards: more energy for storms, heavier downpours, more intensive droughts, and more extreme wildfires.
Those impacts do not unfold uniformly. Some areas may see beneficial rain, while others may experience intensified dryness. This unevenness is one reason seasonal forecasts tied to El Niño are often framed in probabilities and tendencies rather than guarantees.
What El Niño often means for the Southern United States
In the United States, El Niño is often associated with a wetter and cooler pattern in the South. The Southern United States frequently sees more rain and cooler temperatures during El Niño, conditions that can help control droughts and tamp down wildfire activity. For communities facing persistent dryness, the prospect of additional rainfall can be significant, particularly when reservoirs and soils have been stressed.
However, the relationship between a wetter season and long-term recovery can be complicated. Even when El Niño increases the odds of rain, the benefits may not be sufficient to reverse multi-year deficits, especially in places where drought has become severe.
The Southwest drought: why one wet year may not be enough
The Southwest offers a clear example of how severe drought can limit the relief provided by a single wetter period. The region is currently in the grip of such a severe drought that one year of wetter weather will not be enough to fully replenish reservoirs, according to a new analysis by the National Integrated Drought Information System.
This point is critical for water planning and public expectations. Wetter conditions can improve short-term indicators—such as streamflow or soil moisture—but large reservoirs and long-term water storage systems often require sustained above-average input over longer periods to recover from deep deficits.
At the same time, the extra global heat associated with El Niño can contribute to more severe droughts in other parts of the world. That means the same climate pattern that increases rainfall odds in one region can coincide with heightened drought risk elsewhere, reinforcing the idea that El Niño’s impacts are geographically uneven.
Hurricanes: reduced Atlantic formation, but limited protection
El Niño can also affect tropical cyclone activity, particularly in the Atlantic. On the eastern side of the United States, El Niño tends to make it harder for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Ocean. As a result, El Niño years often coincide with less severe Atlantic hurricane seasons.
Still, scientists caution against treating El Niño as a shield. The protection is limited because it only takes one major storm making landfall to cause catastrophic damage. A quieter season overall can still deliver a high-impact event, and risk management cannot depend on seasonal averages alone.
In addition, climate change has caused temperatures in the Atlantic to soar, providing more fuel for storms that do form. That means that even if El Niño reduces the number of storms, the storms that do develop may have access to unusually warm ocean water. And El Niño does nothing to temper storms that form in the Pacific, leaving other basins subject to their own risks.
How to interpret the forecast: probabilities, not promises
The NOAA forecast frames El Niño’s development in terms of likelihood, with a 62% chance between June and August. That probabilistic language is standard in seasonal forecasting, reflecting the complexity of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the fact that conditions can evolve. A forecast can indicate that El Niño is more likely than not, while still leaving room for different outcomes in strength, timing, and duration.
Even so, the prospect of a potentially strong El Niño draws attention because of its track record: El Niño years are associated with hotter temperatures, more extreme droughts, and more intense rainfall. Those broad tendencies, combined with the recent experience of record warmth during 2023 and 2024, help explain why scientists are watching the coming months closely.
Key takeaways
Federal forecasters say El Niño is likely to emerge this summer and persist through the rest of the year, with a 62% chance of development between June and August.
El Niño occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm Pacific Ocean water to shift toward the Americas, influencing global and regional weather patterns.
A strong El Niño can raise average global temperatures; recent record-breaking warmth in 2023 and 2024 coincided with a long, strong El Niño pattern.
Scientists say a strong event could boost temperatures in 2026 and have an even larger effect in 2027, potentially putting that year on track to be the warmest on record after 2024.
El Niño is a natural cycle, but human-caused global warming from burning fossil fuels is the main driver of long-term warming; even without El Niño, recent years have ranked among the hottest on record.
Regional impacts can include wetter, cooler conditions in the Southern U.S., but severe drought in the Southwest may not be reversed by a single wetter year.
El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricane formation, yet it offers limited protection because one landfalling storm can still be catastrophic, warming Atlantic waters can fuel storms that do form, and Pacific storms are not tempered by El Niño.
Looking ahead
As the summer approaches, the developing El Niño signal will be watched for signs of strength and persistence. Scientists expect that if the pattern strengthens, its influence could extend beyond immediate seasonal shifts to affect global temperature averages and regional extremes over the next couple of years. The forecast does not determine any single storm, drought, or heat wave, but it does provide a framework for understanding how the odds of certain outcomes may change in the months ahead.